Independent Risk Assessment

Don't leave your
project's outcome
to chance.

Every capital project estimate is built under pressure to get the project approved. The team doing the work knows the project better than anyone, and that is exactly why an outside view matters. RISK+CLEAR tells your board what the project will likely cost and how long it will actually take, from a team with no stake in the outcome.

Engage RISK+CLEAR
Three dice, the front one showing a red question mark, representing project cost and schedule uncertainty
79%
Average cost overrun on major capital projects
McKinsey, 2023
52%
Average schedule delay vs initial timeframes
McKinsey, 2023
$48M
Revenue foregone per month of production delay
Gold at USD 2,900/oz · 200,000 oz pa
Why projects overrun

The cost estimate is built by the people
who need the project to go ahead.

Every capital project estimate is built under pressure to get the project approved. The team doing the work knows the project better than anyone, and that is exactly why an outside view matters. The contingency they set reflects what they believe will happen. Not what the project will actually cost and how long it will take.

Labour productivity is set against projects in different conditions

A 20 per cent shortfall on productivity rates, entirely plausible when ground or site conditions differ, drives cost increases across every labour-intensive scope element at once.

Equipment delivery times assume market conditions that may not hold

Vendors rarely deliver early. The base programme assumes approvals and deliveries arrive on time. In practice, both carry real delay risk that rarely appears in the approved budget.

Ground conditions are modelled from an investigation programme constrained by budget

The largest single driver of cost and schedule variance in greenfield projects. The project team does not know what they do not know about the ground beneath them.

Cost and time risk are linked and almost never modelled that way

The risks that push cost over budget are the same risks that extend the schedule. A model that treats them separately dramatically understates what the project could actually cost.

What RISK+CLEAR delivers

An independent view of what your project will actually cost and how long it will take.

RISK+CLEAR runs thousands of simulations across your cost and schedule, producing a range of outcomes that shows what your project is likely to cost, what it will probably cost, and what it could cost. Not a single number. A range your board can make a real decision on.

Sample RISK+CLEAR report showing cost probability distribution chart, tornado chart of risk contributors, and risk heat map grid

Signed deliverable package

  • Quantified Risk RegisterCost and schedule risks identified, rated, and structured for simulation
  • Simulation across thousands of scenariosRun across your cost and schedule simultaneously
  • Probability outcomes with chartsShowing which risks contribute most to cost and time variance
  • Contingency checkWhether your approved contingency actually covers the risk exposure
  • Simulation model, yours to keepFully editable, handed over on completion
  • Bound report, signedPDF and editable format. Signed by the Meridian Advisory lead consultant.
How it works

Five steps. Fixed fee.
Signed deliverable.

01
Brief
Scope, cost estimate, schedule and key assumptions defined
02
Workshop
Facilitated risk session with your project team. In-person preferred.
03
Simulation
Model built and run across cost and schedule simultaneously
04
Outcomes
Probability results with charts and contingency analysis
05
Debrief
Results presented to your leadership. Report and model delivered.
Where it applies

Capital projects across mining,
energy, and infrastructure.

Mining + Resources

  • Pre-feasibility and feasibility studies
  • Owner's estimate validation
  • EPC tender risk analysis
  • Expansion and sustaining capital
  • Capital project gateway reviews

Energy + Renewables

  • Project finance support documentation
  • EPC contract risk quantification
  • Regulatory submission evidence
  • Grid connection and infrastructure
  • Investor-grade cost outputs

Infrastructure

  • Public capital project governance
  • Grant accountability reporting
  • Long-term financial plan stress-testing
  • Major project business case support
  • Audit committee compliance
Navigating Complexity, Creating Clarity

Navigating complexity, creating clarity.

Capital projects are complex. The numbers behind them should not be a mystery. RISK+CLEAR gives your board clarity on what the project will cost and how long it will take, so the decision gets made with confidence.

No conflict of interestNo equity, no supply contract, no downstream relationship with the project
Fixed fee, not time and materialsOur incentive is a clean deliverable, not billable hours
Signed and on recordA defensible independent view documented at the time the investment decision is made
Practitioner delivered20+ years of capital project controls. Not a template with numbers inserted.
Engage RISK+CLEAR

When the CEO asks what you knew
before you signed off —
RISK+CLEAR is your answer.

Fees on request. Engagements scoped to project scale, available data, and required deliverable format.

Talk to Brendan directly brendan@meridian109.com Suggested subject: RISK+CLEAR Enquiry — [Project Name]